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Sep 10 08 9:28 PM
To otherwise alter a comment and not
clearly note that either a) one is paraphrasing, or b) one is selectively quoting and provide a link to post being "quoted" so one can review the
entire comment - well, it kinda smacks of disingenuousness.
Sep 12 08 8:30 PM
"Don't ever cry over someone who wouldn't cry over you." - Lauren Conrad
Sep 13 08 5:33 AM
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results for Sept. 9-11 show a slight, but
not statistically significant, three percentage point advantage for John McCain over Barack Obama among registered voters, 48% to 45%.
These results, based on interviewing conducted Tuesday through Thursday, mark the first time since the Sept. 4-6 report that McCain does not have a
statistically significant lead over Obama, and also reflect interviewing on Thursday that showed a very close race. It is unknown whether or not Thursday's
results may have reflected any possible impact of Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin's widely publicized television interviews with Charles
Gibson of ABC News, which began to be broadcast Thursday evening.
The story of the presidential race this year since early June has been a tendency for candidate support levels to return to near parity after one or the
other candidate moves into a brief lead, so the days ahead will show whether or not this contest will once again settle back into a "too close to
Sep 13 08 9:31 AM
Toss Up 94
Sep 13 08 11:54 AM
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results for Sept. 10-12 show the race now
statistically tied, with John McCain at 47% and Barack Obama at 45% among registered voters.
Sep 16 08 7:22 PM
PRINCETON, NJ -- The Sept. 13-15 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain (47%) and
Barack Obama (46%) locked in a close contest when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the election were held today.
The race has been in a statistical dead heat for the last five days, after McCain's lead grew to as large as five percentage points following the
Republican National Convention. In essence, the race is back where it was before the flurry of political activity that began Aug. 25 with the Democratic
National Convention and continued through the Republican convention, which concluded on Sept. 4. The candidates were dead even at 45% in Aug. 22-24 tracking,
the last report of interviews conducted entirely before the beginning of the Democratic convention. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
It is unclear to what extent this week's headline news about the collapse of Wall Street financial institutions and changes in the stock market will
affect the race. Obama has generally held the advantage when Americans are asked which candidate would better deal with the economy, though McCain was able to close the gap after the Republican convention. Monday
night's interviewing did show Obama doing better than he has been in recent updates, but it will take several days to see if he can sustain an improved
position. -- Jeff Jones
Sep 18 08 1:12 PM
PRINCETON, NJ -- The Sept. 15-17 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama with a 48%
to 44% lead over John McCain among registered voters, marking the first time that Obama has held a statistically significant lead in two weeks.
The presidential race has essentially devolved back to a structure very similar to what pertained throughout the months of June and July, during which time
Obama consistently averaged a three percentage point lead over McCain. There have been fairly significant shifts over the last several weeks, including periods
of time in and around the conventions during which both Obama and McCain established leads, and times when the race was essentially tied. But beginning this
week, it appears the voters have settled, for the moment, back into the familiar pattern in which the race remains close with a slight tilt towards Obama.
Separate Gallup tracking shows that consumer confidence has
become significantly more negative as this week progressed, signifying that Americans are clearly paying attention to the major problems facing Wall Street
and the big drops in the stock market on Monday and Wednesday. It is not possible to determine precisely how much of Obama's gain this week may have been
directly caused by Americans' reactions to the economic stories dominating news coverage in newspapers, television, and on the Internet, although this is a
plausible explanation. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Frank Newport
Sep 19 08 12:08 PM
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Tuesday through Thursday finds Barack Obama
with a five percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential preferences of registered voters, 49% to 44%.
This is the fourth consecutive day that Obama has inched forward in voter preferences since the start of the Wall Street financial meltdown beginning with
the announcement on Sunday, Sept. 14, that Lehman Brothers was headed for bankruptcy. The overall effect has been to shift the lead back to Obama after McCain
had moved ahead following the Republican National Convention.
Obama's current 49% rating is close to his 50% record high
reached just after the Democratic National Convention. (That came in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30-Sept. 1.) However, his current five-point
advantage is still lower than his 9-point lead in late July (following his
trip to Europe and the Middle East) and his 8-point leads right after the Democratic National Convention in late August.
McCain's 44% is about midway between his record high 49% reached right after the Republican National Convention in early
September, and his all-time low for the year of 40% recorded in late July.
Obama enjoyed one of his widest advantages over McCain of recent weeks in Thursday night's interviewing. It will be important to see whether the stock
market's reaction today to aggressive government intervention in the crisis has an impact on the direction of the presidential race over the next few
(To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
-- Lydia Saad
Sep 20 08 11:15 AM
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Wednesday through Friday finds Barack Obama
maintaining his lead over John McCain among registered voters, by a 50% to 44% margin.
Obama has held at least a small margin over McCain in each of the last four daily reports, generally coincident with the start of the Wall Street financial
meltdown that began to dominate the news on Monday this past week. Separate Gallup consumer confidence tracking has shown that Americans' views of the
economy deteriorated as the week progressed, and that Americans also began to express increased personal worry about their own finances. There is thus a
reasonable inference that Obama's gains may, in part, be related to the way in which the public viewed his and McCain's response to the financial
crisis. Friday's economic news was a bit more positive, with the announcement of a pending major U.S. government bailout for the country's economy, and
the second day of significant increases in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other stock market indices. It remains to be seen if this will affect
Obama's lead in the days ahead.
Obama's current 50% rating matches his 50% record high
reached just after the Democratic National Convention. (That came in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30-Sept. 1.) However, his current six percentage
point advantage is not as large as the nine-point lead he held in late July and an eight-point lead after the Democratic National Convention in late August. It
is important to note that McCain recovered and moved ahead after each of these Obama high points, suggesting that it is certainly possible that McCain could
recover in this situation as well.
Both candidates will be on stage at the University of Mississippi this coming Friday for the first of three presidential debates, and the public's
reactions to the candidates' performances there could certainly have an impact on their election standing. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008,
click here.) -- Frank Newport
Sep 25 08 10:32 AM
PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain has gained ground and is now tied with Barack Obama among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Sept. 22-24, with each candidate getting 46% support.
Sep 26 08 5:15 AM
164 Solid 64 Leaning
158 Solid 16 Leaning
Toss Up 136
136 Toss Up
Sep 26 08 11:00 AM
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has regained the edge over John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily
tracking from Sept. 23-25, 48% to 45%.
Today's three-day rolling average includes interviewing from Tuesday through Thursday, and thus includes two days following
McCain's announcement on Wednesday afternoon that he was suspending his campaign, putting his participation in the first presidential debate on hold, and
staying in Washington until lawmakers reach an agreement on a financial rescue bill. Last night's interviewing could also reflect public reaction to the
reported breakdown of those rescue talks late Thursday afternoon.
Sep 27 08 10:30 AM
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama leads John McCain, 49% to 44%, when registered voters are asked who they would vote for if the election were held today,
according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update.
These results, from Sept. 24-26, are almost entirely based on interviewing conducted before Friday night's first
presidential debate. This suggests Obama was moving into a slightly better positioning as the two met in Mississippi to debate foreign policy matters
and the economic crisis. The five percentage point lead for Obama in today's update is one of his best in recent weeks, just short of the six-point
advantage he had in Sept. 17-19 polling. McCain had been running ahead of Obama since the Republican National Convention earlier this month, but as the
financial crisis deepened Obama regained the lead positioning he had enjoyed through much of the summer. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008,
The initial impact of the debate -- and perhaps more importantly, the political spin in the days after -- on voter preferences will be apparent in the next
few days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, with Tuesday's report the first for which all interviews will be conducted after the debate. -- Jeff Jones
(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)
Sep 28 08 1:53 PM
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama leads John McCain, 50% to 42% among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday -- just one point shy of his strongest
showing of the year.
These results, from Sept. 25-27, span the time period since John McCain made the announcement that he was temporarily suspending his campaign and returning
to Washington to work for a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis, and since Congressional leaders first announced progress towards the resolution of a
financial bailout bill. The results also include one complete day (Saturday) after the first presidential debate on Friday night. McCain had reached a point
where he was tied with Obama earlier in the week, but Obama has gained steadily in each of the last three days' reports. Overall, Obama has gained four
percentage points over the last three days, while McCain has lost four points, for an eight-point swing in the "gap" or margin.
The full impact of the debate and its aftermath will not be reflected in the tracking data until Tuesday's report, which will be based on interviewing
conducted Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Still, Gallup's one-day read on the standing of the two candidates on Saturday suggests that Obama held the lead
over McCain among registered voters that night, just as he had for the two previous nights.
Obama reached an eight-point lead or higher twice before, once after his highly publicized foreign tour to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Europe in July, and once
after the Democratic National Convention. In both of these instances, Obama's relatively large lead was short-lived; McCain came charging back to tie the
race in both cases. Thus history would suggest the potential for future shifts in voter preferences and for McCain to bounce back once again.
Additionally, major news events relating to the campaign will be forthcoming over the next several weeks -- including the final resolution of Congress'
efforts to pass a financial bailout bill and three more debates (two presidential, and one vice presidential), all of which could have the potential for future
shifts in voter preferences. Obama has held at least a moderate edge over McCain for the vast majority of the days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking since June,
and overall has led by an average of about three points in the over 100,000 interviews conducted by Gallup during this time period. (To view the complete trend
since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Frank Newport
Sep 29 08 2:15 PM
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update, based on Sept. 26-28 polling,
shows Barack Obama with a 50% to 42% lead over John McCain, unchanged from the prior report.
The trend on the presidential horserace showed Obama building momentum heading into Friday's debate, moving from a tie earlier in the week to a five
percentage point Obama advantage through Friday interviewing (most of which was conducted before the debate took place). The debate apparently has done nothing
to halt or reverse that momentum. Today's report includes two full days of interviewing following Friday night's debate, both of which show Obama with
a healthy advantage over McCain. Tuesday's report will provide the first fully post-debate three-day rolling average of voter preferences in the
A USA Today/Gallup poll conducted on Saturday showed that Americans who saw the debate were more likely to say that Obama did a better job than
Obama's 50% level of support matches his high for the campaign, and his eight-point lead is just one percentage point below his largest, achieved after
his international trip in late July. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Sep 30 08 4:16 PM
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama continues to hold a significant lead over John McCain in Gallup Poll
Daily tracking, 49% to 43%.
This is based on interviewing conducted Sept. 27-29, spanning an intense period of negotiations over an historical financial recovery package in Congress
on Friday and Saturday, news of a tentative agreement on the package on Sunday, and then collapse of the bill when it came to the House floor on Monday. It
also represents the first report including three full days of tracking following Friday night's presidential debate.
Today's results mark the fourth straight day Obama has held a five percentage point or better lead over McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, and two
full weeks since McCain last had any advantage over Obama in national voter preferences. McCain held a slim lead over Obama for several days following the
Republican National Convention in early September, but that quickly evaporated with the Wall Street financial crisis that began with the bankruptcy of Lehman
Brothers on Sept. 15. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Upper Limit for Obama?
Although support for Obama among national registered voters hit the 50% mark in the past two days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking (he initially attained 50%
in early September), he has yet to cross that symbolic threshold. The importance of this, however, is unclear. Gallup's historical trial heat trends show
that the winners in 1988, 2000 -- both years with minimal third party candidate support suppressing the vote for the major party candidates -- rarely
attained 50% or greater support from registered voters prior to Gallup's final pre-election poll.
Voter support for George W. Bush only once exceeded 50% in his 2004 campaign against John Kerry, that being 53% in mid-September. In 1988, George H.W.
Bush reached or surpassed the 50% mark once at the very beginning and then not again until the last two weeks of the campaign. -- Lydia Saad
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general election results are based on combined data from Sept. 27-29, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,729 registered voters, the maximum
margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are
cell phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public
Oct 8 08 5:26 PM
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report shows Barack Obama with a 52% to
41% lead over John McCain.
These results, based on Oct. 5-7 polling, are the best for Obama during the campaign, both in terms of his share of the vote and the size of his lead over
McCain. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click
Nearly all interviews in today's report were conducted before Tuesday night's town hall style debate in Nashville. Any movement in voter
preferences as a result of this debate will be apparent in coming days.
Voter preferences seem to have stabilized for the moment, as Obama has held a double-digit lead over McCain in each of the last three individual nights of
Concern about the economy seems to be playing to Obama's advantage; he overtook McCain when the financial crisis worsened in the middle of September,
and his strong showing today coincides with the worst rating of the economy this year (59% of Americans describe current economic conditions as
"poor"). -- Jeff Jones
The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 5-7, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,747 registered voters, the maximum
margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are
cell phone only).
Oct 13 08 6:49 PM
PRINCETON, NJ -- Voter preferences in the presidential race continue to be generally auspicious for Barack Obama's election prospects only three weeks
ahead of the eve of Election Day. Obama leads McCain by 10 percentage points, 51% to 41%, among all registered voters, according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 10-12.
The percentage of registered voters favoring Obama has been 50%, 51%, or 52% in each Gallup Poll Daily tracking report since Oct. 4. Support for McCain has
been a steady 41% to 43% across the same time period. Thus, although the gap between the two candidates has varied from seven to 11 points in recent days,
voter preferences have, in fact, been quite stable. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Among typical "likely voters" -- the subset of registered voters who appear most likely to vote on Election Day according to their current voting
intentions and past voting behavior -- Obama's lead is a slightly narrower seven points, 51% to 44%. This assumes that about 60% of the voting age
population will vote, slightly higher than the 55% who turned out in 2004.
Among a more broadly defined likely voter group that only takes into account current voting intentions -- not past voting behavior -- Obama's lead is
the same 10 points as among all registered voters, 53% to 43%. This group represents approximately two-thirds of the general public, a significantly higher
proportion than has turned out in any recent election. -- Lydia Saad
Oct 16 08 1:01 PM
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Monday through Wednesday
shows Barack Obama with a 49%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters.
Almost all of the interviews in this three-day rolling average were conducted before Wednesday night's third and final presidential debate at Hofstra
University, which began at 9 p.m. ET. It will be several days before the full impact of this debate can be measured in the three-day rolling average,
although its initial impact might be apparent as early as Friday's report.
Meanwhile, the current rolling average shows that McCain has done slightly better in the days leading into the debate. McCain's 43% share of the vote
matches his best in the last two weeks. Today's average also represents the first time since the Sept. 30 - Oct. 2 average that Obama has received less
than 50% support from registered voters, although Obama continues to maintain a significant lead among this group. (To view the complete trend since March 7,
2008, click here.)
Gallup is presenting two likely voter estimates to see how preferences might vary under different turnout scenarios. The "expanded" model
determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally
less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures, but with
a lower undecided percentage, and show Obama up by six percentage points today, 51% to 45%.
The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting
intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous
elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's
margin of error. -- Frank Newport
The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 13-15, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,786 registered voters, the maximum
margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 2,143 "traditional" likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention and past
voting behavior), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 2,312 more broadly defined likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention only), the
maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Oct 16 08 4:37 PM
WASHINGTON - Is John McCain starting to stage a comeback? Perhaps, according to new poll numbers from Gallup, the respected polling
McCain is now within two percentage points of Barack Obama in one Gallup poll, trailing by just 49-47 percent.
He trails by wider margins in other Gallup polls. But even there, he gained in recent days leading up to Wednesday night's third and
final presidential debate.
Gallup now is breaking its polls into three categories as the campaign enters its final weeks: one of registered voters, one of likely voters
that expects higher turnout from young people and others, and one of likely voters based on traditional turnout.
In its daily polling of registered voters, Gallup on Thursday found Obama leading by 49-43 percent. It was the first time Obama's slipped
below the 50 percent threshold in a dozen days, and his six-point lead was the narrowest in more than two weeks.
Gallup's survey of likely voters including expected higher turnouts from young people and minorities showed Obama leading by 51-45
percent. That was a one-point drop for Obama and a one-point increase for McCain.
That expanded pool covers about two thirds of the voting population, Gallup noted, a "significantly higher proportion than has turned
out in any recent election."
Finally, in the smaller and more traditional pool of likely voters, Gallup found Obama leading McCain by 49-47 percent. Obama had led by as
much as 51-44 just four days before.
That poll is based on forecasts of a slightly higher turnout than usual, but not as high as the previous forecast.
"This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have been typically more likely to vote than Democrats
in previous elections," said Gallup editor Frank Newport.
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